January 30, 2009

Employement Trends

Business/Management,Finance/Investment,The World

During economic recessions, employment data has become a very important economic indicator. Increasing unemployment is a sign of decreasing consumer spending and economic slow down. Here are some employment related indicators that are useful in assessing economic conditions: 1. Unemployment Rate (See Graph of Unemployment Rate) Unemployment Rate leads economic downturn and lags economic recovery. 2. Weekly Earnings (See Graph of Weekly Earnings) Higher Weekly Earnings bodes well for the economy. 3.  Total Layoffs (See Graph of Total Layoffs) Layoffs […]

Read More Here! 0
December 30, 2008

Lifecycle of a Financial Bubble – Minsky

Finance/Investment,Psychology,The World

Today I read the book Manias, Panics and Crashes.  And I think the following outline of a financial bubble is very insightful to understand the past and the future. Rise of the Bubble     1. An outside shock to the macroeconomic system. A displacement is an outside event or shock that changes horizons, expectations, anticipated profit opportunities, behavior—‘some sudden advice many times unexpected’     2. The economic outlook and the anticipated profit opportunities would improve in at least one important […]

Read More Here! 0
December 27, 2008

Field Runners Strategy

Brain Teasers,Fun,Strategy

I’ve come across an awesome game called Field Runners in the IPhone.  It is very fun, and here is my strategy for the Grasslands Map and the highest level I get to is 115 on ‘Hard’: The same strategy on ‘Easy’: Here are the reasons for the above layout: 1. All heavy weapons are concentrated in the horizontal path.  This is the only way to defend from the fast running airplanes. 2. For units other than airplanes, they must go […]

Read More Here! 0
December 9, 2008

Some note on the history of boom and bust

Finance/Investment

1.  Quick rate cuts provides liquidity to the economy, and would result in consumer price inflation or asset price inflation.  The expansionary move fuels the self-reinforcing uptrend that defines a boom. 2.  High Fed Fund Rates will stall growth, but will bring inflation down. 3.  During a self-reinforcing boom, wall street analysts will feel great pressure from their clients (investors, fund managers) to act against their own bearish believes. 4.  The driver of a bull market is usually caused by […]

Read More Here! 0
December 2, 2008

Aspects of investor psychology

Finance/Investment,Psychology

I read a paper regarding investor psychology today.  And here are some notes: Some psychological biases that affect investors: 1. Overconfidence.  Investors are overconfident about their predictions or judgments. 2. Optimism.  Investors underestimate the likelihood of bad outcomes over which they have no control.  Investors underestimate the role of chance in human affairs and misperceive games of chance as games of skill. 3.  Hindsight.  Events people did not anticipate appear almost inevitable after they occur.  Hindsight promotes overconfidence, by creating […]

Read More Here! 0

Just Content © 2024 Blog My Brain