April 15, 2009

Some thoughts on the Current Economy

Business/Management,Finance/Investment,The World

I’ve been following Peter Schiff, Jim Rogers, George Soros, Warren Buffett and Marc Faber lately.  I’ve also been watching Obama and Bernanke’s speeches.   And here are some thoughts about current state of the economy and where it is going: The recession is deflationary because the current price levels are the results of the excesses of the consumption and credit bubble.   After the bubble busted, there are an over-supply and over-capacity of everything:  oil, houses, cars, cloths, over-paid employees.  Deflation […]

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January 30, 2009

Employement Trends

Business/Management,Finance/Investment,The World

During economic recessions, employment data has become a very important economic indicator. Increasing unemployment is a sign of decreasing consumer spending and economic slow down. Here are some employment related indicators that are useful in assessing economic conditions: 1. Unemployment Rate (See Graph of Unemployment Rate) Unemployment Rate leads economic downturn and lags economic recovery. 2. Weekly Earnings (See Graph of Weekly Earnings) Higher Weekly Earnings bodes well for the economy. 3.  Total Layoffs (See Graph of Total Layoffs) Layoffs […]

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August 8, 2008

Dinosaurs, Big Companies, Traditions, and Experienced People

Business/Management

What do Dinosaurs, Big Companies, Traditions, and Experienced People in common?  They are slow to change and adapt.  In a stable environment, they would thrive because they know how things would work based on the understanding of how things worked.  However if the environments they understood suddenly change the rules, they would be the slowest to adapt and would possibly go extinct.  In this stage, established structures and traditions become burdens, old knowledge and experiences become dead weights.       […]

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March 21, 2008

Notes on the Black Swan

Business/Management,Finance/Investment,Math/Statistics

Just finished reading the book The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable.   Several important points to take away:       1.  A black swan is a random and yet highly improbable, highly impactful event that exists in reality.       2.  Black swans are produced in the platonic fold, in which the gap between what you know and what you think you know becomes is dangerously wide.  This often happens in areas where the unknown unknowns plays a huge role […]

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March 10, 2008

Inner Working of a Cell

Business/Management,Physical Science,Psychology,The World

http://multimedia.mcb.harvard.edu/media.html Very amazing video. In a way, a human being is just a compilation of individual automatons, with each automaton has its own biological function. Together, the automatons make up a complex system which we define as one human being. If you think of a human being as a cell, with its designated functions, we can imagine any organizations to have its own consciousness and spirit, just like a biological being. Therefore, it does not surprise me that an army, […]

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